“The increase contributes to inflation, the high cost of living in California, and has a disproportionate and adverse impact on lower income Californians,” wrote Professor Michael A. Mische. “To compensate for the increases, the average Californian driving an internal combustion vehicle will have to earn an additional $600.00 to $1,000.00 a year in pre-tax income in order to “breakeven” with 2024 prices, depending on the grade of gas they purchase.”

Days after the November election, the California Air Resources Board — a regulatory commission almost entirely appointed by the governor — passed new updates to the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, requiring producers of “dirty” transportation fuel to purchase more credits from producers of “clean” transportation fuel. The new LCFS will provide an estimated $105 billion in EV charging credits and $8 billion of hydrogen credits largely paid for by fees on gasoline and diesel, which the state estimated would be passed on to drivers and consumers.

Mische first estimated that the state’s newly passed carbon credit requirement will increase retail prices for regular grade gasoline in 2025 somewhere between 40 and 65 cents per gallon — similar to that estimated by the University of Pennsylvania Kleinman Center for Energy Policy.

He then estimated that the governor’s new refinery regulations he passed during a special legislative session last month would increase prices between 5 and 27 cents per gallon, and that the shutdown of the Phillips 66 refinery announced after the new refinery regulations would add another 8 to 14 cents per gallon.

Because California gas taxes rise with the state’s price index, Mische estimates the gas tax will go up between one to two cents per gallon in 2025.

Combined, these changes add up to an increase of 55 to 90 cents per gallon of regular-grade gasoline in 2025, and 95 cents to $1.15 for premium-grade gasoline.

Republicans pointed out that the governor has now moved away from Sacramento, the state’s capital, and will now be chauffeured to work in a gasoline car.

“Newsom is completely out of touch, recently purchasing a $9.1 million mansion in Kentfield, a wealthy town that’s 90 miles away from his job in Sacramento,” said Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones, R-San Diego, in a statement. “While regular Californians face tough choices between putting food on the table or gas in their cars, Newsom will be chauffeured to work from his luxury home in a taxpayer-funded car, running on taxpayer-funded gas, on the rare occasions he decides to show up.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom appears to be taking actions to regulate gasoline on two fronts — through the legislature, and CARB, which consists of 14 voting members — 12 of whom are appointed by the governor without State Senate confirmation.

“In September of last year, CARB estimated that the change could lift gasoline prices 47 cents a gallon, or $6.4 billion a year,” reported the Los Angeles Times. “Other analysts put the price even higher — 65 cents a gallon, or $8.8 [billion] a year.”

It’s unclear how much the new refinery regulations — which would give the state power to tell refineries when they’re allowed to shut down for maintenance and repairs, and determine how much inventory of gasoline to maintain on hand in case refineries have to be shut down — would cost. However, a broad coalition of Republicans, Democrats, neighboring governors, and even labor unions is opposing the measure, which does seem ready to pass.

The small group of labor organizations that came out against the bill — employed in energy trades — shared a number of safety and even electoral concerns.

“This issue is readily being used against our candidate in those states and beyond,” wrote the coalition regarding the potential direct implications for the swing states of Arizona and Nevada that rely on California for gasoline, and the use of California’s climate positions as a tool to attack Democrats nationally more broadly. “If we cannot be heard and believed on issues that could jeopardize the lives of our members, something is very wrong in CA. Every member who votes for this bill should be prepared to answer if something goes wrong”

Assemblymember Joe Patterson, R-Rocklin, said that he believes most legislators actually no longer support the bill but feel strong-armed by the governor.

“The legislature honestly needs to stand up for itself and tell [Newsom] no. I’m guessing the vast majority of legislators want this bill to die,” said Patterson on X. “We shouldn’t do it just because of the Governor’s strange obsession with this weird policy to give bureaucrats power over gasoline production.”

CARB will be voting on the new amendments to the state’s low carbon fuel standard on November 8, just days after the presidential election, on whether or not to adopt new, stricter standards that will make it harder to generate LCFS credits, and require more LCFS credits to be purchased.

As can be seen in CARB data, the LCFS has been so successful that as of April 2024, the most recent data point, the reduction in carbon intensity of the state’s fuel system is already past the goal for 2026. While the widespread availability of LCFS credits has reduced emissions, the rapid scaling of the desired LCFS credit-producing technologies has also reduced the value of individual credits.

Should the new, more strict LCFS requirements be adopted, fewer credits would qualify, and the cost of credits would go up, but much of the billions of dollars invested in existing infrastructure to generate LCFS credits could turn worthless overnight.

California’s gas taxes are already the highest in the nation, with federal, state, and local taxes and fees adding approximately $1.62 per gallon, which is significantly more than the difference between California and national gas prices. If the LCFS is approved, California gasoline could cost approximately $2.09 to $2.27 per gallon more than the national average, a move that could drive more consumers to electric cars, or out of the state entirely.