Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge – Freer Report https://freerreport.com There's a thin line between ringing alarm bells and fearmongering. Mon, 11 Nov 2024 12:01:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://freerreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/cropped-Money-32x32.jpg Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge – Freer Report https://freerreport.com 32 32 237572325 The Grift Is Ending: ESG Fund Managers Being Told to “Keep Their Lawyers Very Close” https://freerreport.com/the-grift-is-ending-esg-fund-managers-being-told-to-keep-their-lawyers-very-close/ https://freerreport.com/the-grift-is-ending-esg-fund-managers-being-told-to-keep-their-lawyers-very-close/#respond Mon, 11 Nov 2024 12:01:08 +0000 https://freerreport.com/the-grift-is-ending-esg-fund-managers-being-told-to-keep-their-lawyers-very-close/ (Zero Hedge)—We’ve known the ESG grift has been coming to a screeching halt for years now, with major investment banks and companies dropping their initiatives while the GOP goes on a rampage to try root out the faux-virtue signaling.

But now with President Trump once again taking the White House, one investment bank is advising ESG fund managers to “keep their lawyers very close”, as the full scale death of ESG may very well be on the door step, according to Yahoo Finance.

Aniket Shah wrote in a note this week: “We’d encourage all ESG fund managers to have a lawyer on the team, or on speed-dial.”

He continued: “Antitrust risk remains high for asset managers in ESG; there haven’t been any cases yet, thus there is no legal precedent. Further, legal risks regarding fiduciary duty will stay relevant as states enforce anti-ESG laws.”

Yahoo reports that Trump’s victory has already hit green sector stocks, with wind-energy companies among the hardest hit. Beyond potential bans and obstructive policies, the ESG sector faces rising legal risks.

Key GOP figures argue ESG-focused firms neglect fiduciary duties, while Republican attorneys general accuse financial firms using ESG metrics of collusion against fossil fuels and fueling inflation.

In response, “greenhushing”—keeping ESG efforts quiet—is likely, Jefferies analysts note. Corporate CEOs are also expected to seek legal guidance to adapt to this shifting landscape.

Jeffries said: “General counsels are in the ear of CEOs, frightened about legal retaliation to ESG initiatives. The backlash could lead to more focused and pragmatic companies, engaging in strategic discussions closely tied to their business model.”

Analysts argue that a public backlash, similar to 2016, could pressure companies to address issues like abortion and diversity. Conflicting state policies on ESG could create a “nightmare” of fragmented requirements, they warn.

Shareholders may still push for ESG risk disclosures aligned with the International Sustainability Standards Board, even as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce maintains it isn’t against ESG or climate disclosures. Notably, these observations focus on the ESG label itself, not the broader clean energy transition.

]]> https://freerreport.com/the-grift-is-ending-esg-fund-managers-being-told-to-keep-their-lawyers-very-close/feed/ 0 227571 Trump’s Election Victory Proves That the Hollywood Elite No Longer Matter https://freerreport.com/trumps-election-victory-proves-that-the-hollywood-elite-no-longer-matter/ https://freerreport.com/trumps-election-victory-proves-that-the-hollywood-elite-no-longer-matter/#respond Mon, 11 Nov 2024 00:48:46 +0000 https://freerreport.com/trumps-election-victory-proves-that-the-hollywood-elite-no-longer-matter/ (Zero Hedge)—Kamala Harris is toast.  The political spin has been crushed underfoot.  The polls were wrong (again) and the presidential race wasn’t even close.  But Harris’ defeat is only a symbol of something much bigger; the national repudiation of an elitist system that has long thrived on the public worship of false idols.

The narrative throughout the Joe Biden campaign was that the old ghoul was “sharp as a tack”.  That fantasy was quickly exposed to the masses in a single election debate.  The Harris campaign narrative was that Democrats are the “party of joy”, and they tried real hard to sell this illusion using a horde of celebrities and legacy media talking heads as a foil.

It’s difficult to artificially generate joy.  But beyond that, the era of the celebrity endorsement is long gone.  Americans don’t care anymore and this seems to be confounding the progressive media.  According to them Harris ran a “flawless campaign”.  Joy Reid argued that with the number of celebrity endorsements Harris received her victory should have been assured.

Kamala even had the cast of The Avengers on her side.  The problem is that The Avengers and Harris never presented a valid economic policy plan, which is what the public really cares about.

Though one could argue that the Trump campaign also highlighted their celebrity endorsements (or that Trump’s TV stardom years ago is an example of celebrity power), the difference is that actors and pop stars were central to Kamala’s presidential run while they were a side note for Trump.  He didn’t need Hollywood to rally for him.

There is an assumption by media pundits that movie star endorsements are somehow organic; but actors and singers can be bought.  Rumors abound that both Biden and Harris were paying big money to social media influencers in the early days of the election cycle and it’s a fair bet that they were doing the same thing with celebrity mascots.

How much Harris campaign money was flowing into the pockets of these people?  Recent reports indicate that the Biden/Harris camp generated double the amount of donations that Trump received, yet she spent so much bread her campaign is now allegedly $20 million in debt.  If this is true then it highlights the incredible expense involved in creating fake joy, as well as the pointlessness of the Hollywood cult.

In other words, they can’t buy hype anymore.

Cash might have been a big motivator for celebrities to jump on the Kamala bandwagon, but there’s also the issue of impending investigations into Hollywood’s degeneracy and pedophilia.  With Trump in office there will be increasing public demands for the release of the Esptein client lists as well as the exposure of the alleged Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs tapes.  Trump is likely to oblige.

Finally, the residents of Tinsel Town are notorious for living within a bubble of ideological delusion.  It’s true that decades ago celebrities had far more influence on the opinions of the general public, and perhaps they think they’re still living in that “golden” era.  It’s simply not the case, as the latest election proves.  The realization is hitting them like a ton of bricks.

Narcissists cannot handle the revelation that they are irrelevant, and so they quickly become unhinged.

The political left roots itself in the idea that they are the core of culture and they pride themselves on being the gatekeepers for what the public sees and hears.  They have long sought to dominate popular media through subversion and they’ll often brag about their success in infiltrating every corner of the entertainment industry.  But does any of this matter anymore?  Ricky Gervais answers this question in brilliant parody.

The alternative media today is dominating the establishment media.  Celebrities, once living behind a carefully crafted marketing image, are now exposed on social media as the dunces they really are.  Trump’s latest victory in the face of the La La Land army might just herald the total destruction of the old Hollywood regime.

]]> https://freerreport.com/trumps-election-victory-proves-that-the-hollywood-elite-no-longer-matter/feed/ 0 227547 General Flynn Delivers Bone-Chilling Post-Election Warning https://freerreport.com/general-flynn-delivers-bone-chilling-post-election-warning/ https://freerreport.com/general-flynn-delivers-bone-chilling-post-election-warning/#respond Sun, 10 Nov 2024 09:05:12 +0000 https://freerreport.com/general-flynn-delivers-bone-chilling-post-election-warning/ First, they tried to take Trump from the ballot. Then, they tried to throw him behind bars. And when that didn’t work, they went after his life.

But now, as The Burning Platform’s Jim Quinn details below, after two terrifying assassination attempts, General Flynn warns that it could happen again.

During an eye-opening conversation with Steve Bannon, Flynn told Trump’s inner circle to brace for another attempt on Trump’s life before he reaches the Oval Office in January.

Speaking with urgency, Flynn stated

“Number one, Trump needs to be very, very certain of the security around him… They have already tried it a couple of times. They’ll try it again between now and inauguration. That, to me, is job number one.”

He also told viewers that the real battle lies ahead, urging Trump to prepare for an all-out war against the Deep State.

“We can eliminate a lot of this nonsense by being prepared for what we know the enemy is going to do… Accountability must happen.”

This conversation is a must-listen…

]]> https://freerreport.com/general-flynn-delivers-bone-chilling-post-election-warning/feed/ 0 227538 Americans Have Burned Through Their Pandemic Savings https://freerreport.com/americans-have-burned-through-their-pandemic-savings/ https://freerreport.com/americans-have-burned-through-their-pandemic-savings/#respond Sat, 09 Nov 2024 02:57:57 +0000 https://freerreport.com/americans-have-burned-through-their-pandemic-savings/ (Zero Hedge)—For the past three years, as the United States – like many other nations – battled with elevated inflation, consumer spending has remained remarkably robust, keeping the U.S. economy from sliding into a recession.

However, as Statista’s Felix Richter reports, that has come at the expense of personal saving, which dropped sharply in 2022, when the personal saving rate, i.e. the share of their disposable income that people weren’t spending on consumption, taxes or interest payments, dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis.

You will find more infographics at Statista

During the pandemic, when generous stimulus checks met limited consumption possibilities, Americans had saved more money than ever before, with the personal saving rate peaking at 32 percent in April 2020 and remaining above the pre-pandemic trend until the end of 2021.

That’s when inflation started to bite, and people started utilizing these excess savings to support their spending.

According to calculations made by economists at the San Francisco Fed, American households accumulated $2.1 trillion in excess savings between March 2020 and August 2021, that is they saved $2.1 trillion more than they would have been expected to based on the pre-pandemic trend of personal saving. In September 2021, people began saving less than they would have been expected to, meaning those excess savings were gradually drawn down. Three inflation-plagued years later, Americans have burned through those excess savings, and then some.

At the end of September 2024, Americans had collectively saved $291 billion less since March 2020 than they would have been projected to if the pandemic had never happened.

]]> https://freerreport.com/americans-have-burned-through-their-pandemic-savings/feed/ 0 227501 “You Know It’s Serious When Amish Get Involved” https://freerreport.com/you-know-its-serious-when-amish-get-involved/ https://freerreport.com/you-know-its-serious-when-amish-get-involved/#respond Tue, 05 Nov 2024 22:05:48 +0000 https://freerreport.com/you-know-its-serious-when-amish-get-involved/ (Zero Hedge)—As Pennsylvania’s polls near closing, an unexpected twist has emerged: a massive mobilization of Amish voters. Known for their separation from mainstream society and reliance on traditional values, such as horse-and-buggy transportation (arguably more ‘green’ than EVs), these folks, traditionally not big participators in US politics, have been out in force at PA polling stations, voting for former President Trump after Biden-Harris’ big gov’t waged war on the community.

Let’s begin with the context. Earlier this year, the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture and big government Democrats targeted a small Amish farmer in Lancaster over compliance issues. This apparently infuriated the Amish community that many of them registered to vote and voted red in the last several days.

Real America’s Voice’s Tera Dahl was speaking at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania on Monday, and she explained that the Amish community is not a traditional group of voters in US elections.

“But they’re voting this year – and I think a big reason is the overreach of government – and one example that could’ve had a big impact was back in January. An Amish farmer was selling his milk – and the gov’t raided his home and stopped his business,” she said.

An Amish person was asked outside one PA polling station: “Who are you voting for?”

He responded, “Donald Trump.” He explained that the Amish had “more freedoms under Trump,” while government overreach drastically increased under Biden-Harris.

US Rep. Lloyd Smucker, R-Pa., whose district includes Lancaster County, at the epicenter of America’s Amish population, told PBS News last week, “They just want government to stay not only out of their businesses but out of their religion.”

With family roots deep in the Amish community, Smucker forecasted a dramatic increase in the Amish vote, “basing that on the enthusiasm we see.”

]]> https://freerreport.com/you-know-its-serious-when-amish-get-involved/feed/ 0 227428 “The Math Doesn’t Work”: CNN Panelist Says Democrats Are at a Massive Disadvantage From Early Voting Deficit https://freerreport.com/the-math-doesnt-work-cnn-panelist-says-democrats-are-at-a-massive-disadvantage-from-early-voting-deficit/ https://freerreport.com/the-math-doesnt-work-cnn-panelist-says-democrats-are-at-a-massive-disadvantage-from-early-voting-deficit/#respond Tue, 05 Nov 2024 17:07:03 +0000 https://freerreport.com/the-math-doesnt-work-cnn-panelist-says-democrats-are-at-a-massive-disadvantage-from-early-voting-deficit/ (ZeroHedge)—A CNN panel looked shocked after guest Marc Lotter suggested a significant shortfall in Democrat early voting vs. 2020 portends a bad time for Kamala Harris.

“The math doesn’t work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas,” said Lotter. “They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters.”

“Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000,” he continued, noting that “Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day.”

“The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states.”

Lotter’s comments come after the Trump campaign touted bullish data showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states vs. the 2020 election cycle.

According to the campaign, new and infrequent voters are leaning more Republican than Democrat based on the latest indications from Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the NY Post reports, citing a source in the camp.

“In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet” — despite early voting being closed in nearly every state — “and many not having even requested a mail ballot,” the source said, suggesting that Democrat turnout might not be as strong this time around.

According to the Post, here’s some of the data that allies of the campaign have been privately touting – mixed with early-voter information:

Arizona

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 8 points.

Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.

Early voting in the Grand Canyon State closed Nov. 1. Men comprised about 50% of the votes for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, according to the data shared with The Post.

Other groups have reported apparent advantages for Republicans here, too. For instance, there have been 924,524 GOP ballot returns, relative to 736,569 for Democrats, according to early-vote data compiled by UpLift Campaigns.

Georgia

The Peach State doesn’t have voter registration information for its early votes.

Looking at data from Democratic analyst Tom Bonier, the African American early vote and mail turnout dipped 7% relative to 2020.

Early voting in Georgia stopped Nov. 1. Its turnout soared to 4,004,588 both through early voting and absentee voting by mail this year, compared to the 2,697,822 early voters four years ago, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.

Michigan

The Wolverine State similarly lacks voter registration information for its early votes.

But the Trump campaign is touting data suggesting that in-person early voters represent about 32% of the pre-Election Day votes cast and that its supporters typically favor in-person voting. In-person early voting is new in Michigan.

More than 2.58 million of the over 7 million people registered to vote in Michigan have cast early votes, according to data from the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office.

North Carolina

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 1 point.

Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.

This appears to be the first time Republicans have ever clinched the early vote in North Carolina.

Data from Bonier suggests that African American mail and early-vote returns have sunk 22% relative to 2020 here. Men comprised about 37% of the Democratic support and 49% of Republican support.

In-person early voting in the Old North State stopped Nov. 2.

There have been about 4.4 million early votes cast out of the roughly 7.8 million registered voters in North Carolina, including 1,478,496 for Republicans, 1,436,861 for Democrats and 1,524,094 without a party registration, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Nevada

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 4 points.

Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 8 points.

Early in-person voting was closed off Nov. 1. Roughly 42% of Democratic votes came from men and 52% from Republicans.

Across the board, Nevada saw about 1,077,441 voters turn out early, including 406,705 from Republicans and 363,595 from Democrats, according to data.

Pennsylvania

Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Democrats up 23 points

Relative to 2020: Republicans are faring 22 points better.

The Trump campaign believes that Democrats’ early-vote advantage in the Keystone State has slipped from past elections, with total absentee ballots plummeting about 29% relative to the 2020 cycle.

There have been at least 1,739,606 early votes cast in Pennsylvania, including 971,615 from Democrats and 571,725 from Democrats, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab data.

Wisconsin

The Badger State lacks voter registration information for its early votes.

Still, the Trump campaign believes that early votes and mail-in ballots have slipped 23% since 2020 and that mail-in ballot requests are down 52% from 2020.

There have been at least 1,338,728 early votes cast in Wisconsin, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. There are more than 4.7 million registered voters there.

Approximately 76 million early votes have been cast across the country, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab vs. 252 million in the 2020 election, in which early voting generally favored Democrats, while in-person voting leaned Republican.

]]> https://freerreport.com/the-math-doesnt-work-cnn-panelist-says-democrats-are-at-a-massive-disadvantage-from-early-voting-deficit/feed/ 0 227424 Medvedev: US Election Doesn’t Matter, Ukraine War Won’t Stop, and Trump May Get JFK’d if He Intervenes https://freerreport.com/medvedev-us-election-doesnt-matter-ukraine-war-wont-stop-and-trump-may-get-jfkd-if-he-intervenes/ https://freerreport.com/medvedev-us-election-doesnt-matter-ukraine-war-wont-stop-and-trump-may-get-jfkd-if-he-intervenes/#respond Mon, 04 Nov 2024 09:31:30 +0000 https://freerreport.com/medvedev-us-election-doesnt-matter-ukraine-war-wont-stop-and-trump-may-get-jfkd-if-he-intervenes/ (Zero Hedge)—Days after Russia launched a massive readiness drill of their nuclear forces, former Russian President and current deputy chairman of the country’s Security Counsel Dmitry Medvedev says that the outcome of the US election doesn’t matter, as both candidates believe “Russia must be defeated,” and that if Donald Trump is elected and tries to intervene, he may be assassinated.

Medvedev made the comments to his nearly 1.4 million followers on Telegram.

The entire post, translated (emphasis ours);

The whole world stands frozen in uneasy anticipation, waiting for the results of the presidential election in the distant land of ‘Us.

There is no reason why we should have high expectations about it.

1. The outcome of the election will not change anything for Russia, as both candidates share the same bipartisan consensus that ‘Russia must be defeated’.

2. Kamala is dumb, inexperienced, and easy to control, as she will be terrified of everyone around her. All the real decision-making will be done by a coterie of top ministers and advisors plus (indirectly) the Obamas.

3. A low-energy Trump, spewing clichés like “I’ll offer them a deal” and “I have a very good relationship with…”, will be forced to comply with the system and its rules. He won’t stop the war. Not in one day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he actually attempts to do it, he could end up becoming the new JFK.

4. The only thing that matters is how much cash the new POTUS can squeeze out of Congress to finance someone else’s war, fought in a far-off land. Cash to feed the American military-industrial complex and to line the pockets of the Banderite scum in Ukraine.

5. That is why, if we want to please both candidates for the highest American office, the best thing to do on November 5 is keep pummeling the Nazi regime in Kiev!

Meanwhile, Medvedev reiterated to Russian state-controlled news agency RT that adding Ukraine to NATO could lead to World War III.

“Shortly before his death, already at a very mature age, he (Kissinger) as if with some regret suggested that now we have no choice but to accept Ukraine into NATO,” he told the outlet. “I think that he was still mistaken in this. There is no such predetermination. Because, choosing between some promises and the possibility of starting a third world war—the choice is still quite obvious.”

Ukraine’s long-held goal of NATO membership was among the objectives in the Victory Plan that Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky unveiled during a visit to the U.S. in September.

Kyiv’s ambassador to the alliance Nataliia Galibarenko said in October that the Ukrainian government would like a formal invitation to join the alliance before President Joe Biden leaves office in January.

Along with claims of alliance encroachment on Russia, Moscow often refers to the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO to justify its actions. Kyiv says it needs to join NATO to resist any future Russian aggression. -Newsweek

He also told RT that Moscow believes the current US and European political establishments lack the “foresight and subtlety of mind” of Kissinger, and should take the Kremlin’s nuclear warnings seriously.

“If we are talking about the existence of our state, as the president of our country has repeatedly said, your humble servant has said, others have said, of course, we simply will not have any choice,” he said, per Sky News and The Sun, adding that the US and the West are “wrong” if they think Putin won’t turn to nuclear weapons if NATO sought to inflict a defeat on Russia in the Ukraine war.

“If the new [US] leader is going to be fiercely dedicated to adding fuel to the fire of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it will be a very bad choice,” adding “Because this is the road to hell.”

“It’s really a road to World War Three,” he continued. “Whoever decides to continue the war will be making a very dangerous mistake.”

]]> https://freerreport.com/medvedev-us-election-doesnt-matter-ukraine-war-wont-stop-and-trump-may-get-jfkd-if-he-intervenes/feed/ 0 227382 Jobs Shock: October Payrolls Huge Miss as Private Jobs Go Negative for First Time Since 2020 https://freerreport.com/jobs-shock-october-payrolls-huge-miss-as-private-jobs-go-negative-for-first-time-since-2020/ https://freerreport.com/jobs-shock-october-payrolls-huge-miss-as-private-jobs-go-negative-for-first-time-since-2020/#respond Fri, 01 Nov 2024 20:23:49 +0000 https://freerreport.com/jobs-shock-october-payrolls-huge-miss-as-private-jobs-go-negative-for-first-time-since-2020/ In our nonfarm payrolls preview last night, we said that the October payrolls report may show the first negative print since 2020. Well, moments ago the BLS reported the highly anticipated number and… it was close: the monthly print was only 12K, a huge drop from the pre-revision 254K in October (revised naturally lower to 223K), and just 13K away from a negative print.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm23C7.jpg?itok=qR1Qj4BR

The print was so low it was only above the two lowest estimates (those of Bloomberg Econ for -10K and ABN Amr0 for a 0 print). That means it was a 3 sigma miss to estimates.

And of course, as has been the case for the entire Biden admin, previous months were revised sharply lower once again: August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. This means that even after the monster September revision when 818K jobs were removed, 7 of the past 9 months were again revised lower!

This means that once the November jobs are released, we can be virtually certain that October will be revised to negative.

But wait, there’s more because while the total payroll number was just barely positive, if one excludes the 40K government jobs, private payrolls was in fact negative to the tune of -28K, down from 223K pre-revision last month, and the first negative print since December 2020. In other words, we were right… when it comes to actual, non-parasite “government” jobs.

To be sure, as we noted yesterday, a big part of the drop was due to the one-time event discussed, including the Boeing strike and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. This is what the BLS said on the topic: “In October, the household survey was conducted largely according to standard procedures, and response rates were within normal ranges” however, “the initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average. However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and length of the collection period. This period, which can range from 10 to 16 days, lasted 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month.”

More importantly, the BLS said that “it is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey.”

Ironically, while the BLS was unable to “quantify the net effect” from the hurricanes, it was able to calculate that the number of people not at work due to weather surged to the third highest in recent history, up 512K!

In other words, the BLS now has an excuse to blame the plunge on, it just doesn’t know how to quantify it. Translation: if Trump is president next month, expect the downtrend to continue with little to no mention of hurricane as the BLS prepares to admit the true state of the labor market; if however Kamala wins, the November jobs will magically rebound (even as downward revisions accelerate) and all shall be back to fake normal.

Oh, and of course, today’s catastrophic jobs print gives the Fed a full carte blanche to again cut 25bps next week, even if the plunge was all hurricanes…

The rest of the jobs report was not that exciting: the unemployment rate printed at 4.1%, unchanged from last month and in line with expectations. The number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.8 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

It’s worth noting that the unemployment rate actually rose almost 0.1% despite being reported as flat because in September it was 4.05% and in October it was 4.145%, and rose due to a surge in layoffs (+166K) as well as re-entrants (+108K). Additionally, as Southbay research notes, the average duration of unemployment rose from 22.6 weeks to 22.9 weeks

Wage growth came in slightly higher than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% in October, higher than the 0.3% expected, and up from the downward revised 0.3% in September (was 0.4%). On an annual basis, earnings rose 4.0%, in line with expectations, and above the downward revised 3.9% (was 4.0%).

Some more stats from the latest monthly report:

  • Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers edged up to 1.8 million in October. The number of people on temporary layoff changed little at 846,000.
  • The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9 percent of all unemployed people.
  • Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, changed little in October.
  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October.
  • The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, was essentially unchanged in October. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
  • Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in October. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 379,000 in October.

Turning to the establishment survey, we find the following breakdown in jobs:

  • Health care added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+36,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).
  • Employment in government continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000).
  • Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services declined by 49,000 in October. Temporary help services employment has decreased by 577,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022.
  • Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity.
  • Employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs.

And visually:

Three things stick out here:

  • First, manufacturing is a disaster, with the US losing manufacturing jobs for 3 months in a row, and 4 of the last 5. Can’t blame that on hurricanes.

  • Second, the number of construction jobs is becoming absolutely ridiculous, especially when contrasted with the plunge in actual housing starts, completions and last but not least, actual job openings.

  • Finally, delta between government jobs and private jobs was a whopping 12K, the biggest since covid. This means that more government jobs were added in October than all private jobs lost in the month! Just in case you needed to know how the Biden admin avoided a negative total headline print.

]]> https://freerreport.com/jobs-shock-october-payrolls-huge-miss-as-private-jobs-go-negative-for-first-time-since-2020/feed/ 0 227334 Overton Window Shifts Towards Liberty https://freerreport.com/overton-window-shifts-towards-liberty/ https://freerreport.com/overton-window-shifts-towards-liberty/#respond Tue, 29 Oct 2024 10:09:12 +0000 https://freerreport.com/overton-window-shifts-towards-liberty/ (Zero Hedge)—There’s been a seismic shift in the mood of the American people. Have you noticed?

The propaganda and manipulation by Democrats, Deep State non-profits (funded by radical leftist billionaires), and corporate media outlets have lost control of the narratives just days before the presidential election—they’re no longer effective at propping up Kamala Harris—as a majority of American people reject censorship, wokeism and whatever this is...

Americans are now more interested in upholding the values of the West, the US Constitution, and the Declaration of Independence, with some youth seeking traditionalism. The far-left slant of the Overton window during the Biden-Harris administration appears to be shifting the other way/ or perhaps widening. 

The Overton Window is a range of acceptable policy ideas within mainstream political debate. For years, corporate MSM, radical leftist non-profits, and far-left activists in government and corporations have artificially pushed the window to the left, force-feeding Americans into radical leftist ideas to transform the nation towards a pathway towards socialism/or 21st-century communism.

History may show that Elon Musk’s X and former President Trump shifted the Overton Window from a leftist extreme to more of a center-right. Americans are increasingly giving up on woke pronouns, instead focusing on “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”

Musk has shown MSM’s matrix has glitched, with an X post stating, “The refreshing cool breeze of a wide open Overton Window.” 

Musk followed up on the Overton Window on Sunday evening. He said, “Ever wondered about the Overton Window?” 

Musk quoted X user Jash Dholani, who explained the origins of the Overton Window and just exactly how this model shows wokeism is coming to an end. The window has shifted to the center-right.

Here is the explainer:

The Long View states…

“The most important thing to understand about the Overton Window is that it is not static, it is always on the move. Not only can the window shift left or right, but the window itself can also expand and contract based on a number of different cultural and political factors,” another X user noted.

Overton Window has shifted so severely in recent months… And we wonder why.

Like many of Trump’s new supporters this year.

What’s clear is that the Overton Window has shifted towards “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.” 

Earlier this year, we stated: “Open The Overton Window.”

]]> https://freerreport.com/overton-window-shifts-towards-liberty/feed/ 0 227269 Leftists Are Terrified About What Will Happen to Them When Trump Wins the Election https://freerreport.com/leftists-are-terrified-about-what-will-happen-to-them-when-trump-wins-the-election/ https://freerreport.com/leftists-are-terrified-about-what-will-happen-to-them-when-trump-wins-the-election/#respond Tue, 29 Oct 2024 05:44:28 +0000 https://freerreport.com/leftists-are-terrified-about-what-will-happen-to-them-when-trump-wins-the-election/ (ZeroHedge)—After being indoctrinated for almost a decade to believe that their political opponents are secret Nazis ready to install a fascist regime, it’s not surprising that Democrats are freaking out over recent polls indicating a potential Trump win in the November elections. Convinced that America 2024 is going to be a repeat of Germany 1933, ignorant leftists are scrambling to determine whether or not to leave the US or “start a revolution.” The anxiety is palpable.

The New Yorker recently asserted in an arduous and rambling article spanning centuries of political history and every rhetorical cliche imaginable that, essentially, Trump is likely to win.

The outlet describes Kamala Harris as “virtuous” (which is laughable), but they suggest this trait is not respected enough within the American political sphere. They lament the undeniable shift of global politics to the conservative right while refusing to ask why it’s happening? They simply default to the old low-IQ and low effort accusations of “racism” and “xenophobia”. The New Yorker argues:

“Even when it is utterly self-destructive – as in Britain, where the xenophobia of Brexit cut the U.K. off from traditional allies while increasing immigration from the Global South—the apprehension that “we” are being flooded by frightening foreigners works its malign magic.

It’s an old but persistent delusion that far-right nationalism is not rooted in the emotional needs of far-right nationalists but arises, instead, from the injustices of neoliberalism…”

The mass immigration from the third world continues in Britain because the same progressive elitists are still in charge despite the Brexit vote. That’s why the country is spiraling into a pit of criminality, mass stabbings and a rape epidemic. It’s the reason why the British voted for Brexit in the first place.

Brexit and the end of mass immigration is the will of the majority of the people, just as it’s the will of the majority of people in many parts if Europe and the US. Yet, leftists who pontificate endlessly about the virtues of democracy dismiss the majority when it suits them. It is this arrogance of the political left that has led directly to the rise of the right wing movement that so utterly terrifies them.

The problem is, leftists never take responsibility because they see this as an expression of weakness, and also because their moral relativism allows them to rationalize any behavior as necessary “for the greater good.” Their main character syndrome spurs them to believe they are the ultimate good in the world, and if they are the ultimate good then anyone who dares oppose them must be the ultimate evil.

This is why they have a tendency to demonize their political opposition in extreme ways. The New Yorker describes Trump as singularly dangerous, comparing him to mobsters, tyrants and even cancer:

“Trumpism is a cancerous phenomenon. Treated with surgery once, it now threatens to come back in a more aggressive form, subject neither to the radiation of “guardrails” nor to the chemo of “constraints.” It may well rage out of control and kill its host…”

And this kind of rhetoric is exactly why there have been at least two assassination attempts on Trump’s life; attempts which the leftist media then shamelessly blamed on Trump. It’s also gaslighting, considering the level of tyranny Democrats have engaged in under Biden and the contempt they have displayed for American ideals over the past decade.

The fantasy world of the left is rife with paranoia built on a foundation of emotional sand rather than evidence. They see a new Trump term as the end of everything:

“Having lost the popular vote, as he surely will, he will not speak up to reconcile “all Americans.” He will insist that he won the popular vote, and by a landslide. He will pardon and then celebrate the January 6th insurrectionists, and thereby guarantee the existence of a paramilitary organization that’s capable of committing violence on his behalf without fear of consequences. He will, with an obedient Attorney General, begin prosecuting his political opponents…”

“When he begins to pressure CNN and ABC, and they, with all the vulnerabilities of large corporations, bend to his will, telling themselves that his is now the will of the people, what will we do to fend off the slow degradation of open debate?

Trump will certainly abandon Ukraine to Vladimir Putin and realign this country with dictatorships and against NATO and the democratic alliance of Europe. Above all, the spirit of vengeful reprisal is the totality of his beliefs—very much like the fascists of the twentieth century in being a man and a movement without any positive doctrine except revenge against his imagined enemies…”

The establishment media has imagined quite a reformation of American politics at the hands of Trump, and a lot of it actually sounds pretty good. But as many conservatives have noted, if Trump had authoritarian intentions why didn’t he follow through on them during his first term?

Some would argue that he did too little in the face of the city burning antics of BLM, and that he should have pushed harder to stop the legal railroading of the J6 protesters who did little in comparison to the race rioters. Where is this uncompromising zealot that The New Yorker describes? He doesn’t exist.

What is this really about? It’s about the political left’s unspoken fear of a justified reckoning. Deep down, they know they deserve punishment and they know most of the country has no interest in protecting them.

They’ve spent years instigating civil unrest, they attempted an authoritarian takeover of the country using covid mandates as a foil, they lied incessantly about the threat of a stagflation crisis, they colluded to violate the 1st Amendment as the Biden White House and Big Tech platforms worked together to censor public discourse online, and they have targeted American children with sexualized gender ideology in public schools in an attempt to convert them permanently to the far-left cult. They know what they have done and they know consequences are incoming.

A lot of them are talking about leaving the country should Trump prevail in November, as the New York Times reports. Their reasons vary, but worries of “fascism” top the list while others say they want to be able to trans their children (or abort their children) without interference. The reality is that no one will miss these people and the US would be better off without them. They would be doing the country a favor by running away.

Talk of “revolution” has been much less pronounced compared to 2016, and this suggests that leftists realize their grift is finally over. They are some of the most hated people on the planet, and for good reason. They spent the last several years burning every bridge and violating every principle that Americans hold dear in the pursuit of ultimate power. They’re also losing popularity in Europe, it’s not just an American trend.

Trump may or may not pursue an administration of “vengeance”. It’s likely he will not act on most of the scenarios the New Yorker describes. Democrats focus a lot on Trump as if he’s the source of their ills.

What they don’t understand is that it’s not really Trump they should be worried about – It’s the millions of people suffering under progressive governments and aggressive woke activism that present the biggest threat.

You can’t simply engage in the wanton destruction of western culture, economics, freedom and morality and then pretend like you’re a victim when the torches and pitchforks come calling.

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